記録 2016.09.06.うう。
*昨夕はもう本当に「ぐったり」過ぎた。
お風呂は入ったんだけど、以降の記憶が定かでない。
2時頃目が覚めるとPCはつけっぱだわ髪は濡れてるわ。
夜はかなり書きものをするんだけど、(ペンと紙)
もう1文字も書けない。と思った。久しぶり。
やっぱ週末の4本ノック(・・・)が今更覿面に効いてますかね。
鍛え方があまいのかね。(・・・)
年波には勝てませんね。(・・・)
*この赤い薬を飲めば、キッカリ2時間びしっと集中できる。
書類の山が消える!気になってた掃除が捗る!積読が片付く!
マジでそういう薬欲しくなったり。
人間やめますか？な薬。
「しんどいしんどい」ってぶつぶつ言いながら、感じながら、やる、重い身体を引きずって動かす、のが、
そんなにイヤなら人間やめちまえ。だよなあ。
人間らしくていいじゃない。
*土竜の唄ｗ サイ!!サイコー!!
パピヨンかっけえな。ジューシーも女になっちゃうもんな。
いい種も悪い種もテメエがまいたモノを一つずつ刈り取るのが人生だ。 だから人生ってのは面白い。 いい花咲かせろよ、兄弟。
俺は誰のオトコでもねえが、 一度でも抱いた女は俺のオンナだ。
玲二「兄弟が飛べねぇって言うんなら、オレが兄弟の羽になる！」
そういえば実写版があって、堤真一が演じてたんだっけ。観てないけど・・・
*うわあ まだ火曜日だよ！！早く寝る寝る寝る。
(- -)
【自分用メモ】(長いのでたたみます。)
◆プロシェアーズ・ウルトラショート・エン(ProShares UltraShort Yen)は、メリーランド州ベセスダに本社を置く、上場投資信託(ETF)事業を行う企業です。
日本円の米ドル価格の利回り実績の2倍逆数に対応する毎日の投資成果を追求します。
該当するベンチマークに関して、スワップ協定や先物契約、先渡し契約、オプション契約の金融商品の1つまたは複数の組み合わせに投資します。
また、現金・現金同等物、米国財務省証券、その他の高信用度短期固定利付、金融商品の担保として機能する類似有価証券などの、その他資産にも投資します。
プロシェア・アドバイザーズが、投資顧問を務めます。
◆フリードリヒ・ヴィルヘルム・ライファイゼン(Friedrich Wilhelm Raiffeisen)(1818年 3月30日-1888年 3月11日)はドイツのヴァイアーブッシュ市長(1844-48),フランマースフェルト市長(1848-52)ヘッデスドルフ市長(1852-65), 信用協同組合の先駆者である。いくつかの信用組合システムや協同組織金融機関は、地方の信用組合(農業協同組合に近い)の祖であるライファイゼンの名を冠する。
◆◆ちょっと前の、Project Syndicate と Financial Times から。
◆ベンジャミン・コーヘン氏(米カリフォルニア大サンタバーバラ校教授)：
英とEU、「妥協通じ協調を」
英国の有権者がごく僅差で欧州連合(EU)からの離脱を決めたことで、市場の混乱や景気後退への懸念が高まっている。しかし、そうした懸念には根拠があるのだろうか。大半の人が考えているほど見通しは暗くないと主張することも可能だ。この物語はまだ終わりには程遠いため、深呼吸をして長期的な視点に立つことを勧めたい。
英国がEUを離脱すれば金融街シティーのビジネスのかなりの部門は大陸に移転すると予想される。売上高の半分がEU向けである英国の輸出企業にも不満が多い。スコットランドや北アイルランドの住民は残留をなんとか実現しようとしている。離脱の代償は明確になりつつある。
では、英国はどのようにしたら有権者の民主的な意思を尊重しつつ、シティーなどが望むような「欧州の一部にとどまることができるのだろうか。答えは「何とかやって行く」だ。
EUには多くの課題に直面しながら何とか切り抜けてきた伝統がある。長年、さまざまな加盟国のニーズや要求を調整し、厄介な取り決めに依存してきた。EUはそうした「よれよれの妥協の精神」(エコノミスト誌)がなかったら、初期のうちに崩壊していた可能性が高い。異なる利害が簡単に折り合うことができない状況で、EUは混乱と不明瞭とあいまいさのテクニックを身につけ、何とか図体の大きな怪物を前に進める方法を見つけてきた。
政策決定者は、EU離脱を巡る国民投票が明示していたにもかかわらず、選択肢が「残留」と「離脱」だけではなかったことを知っている。この2つの間には、英国が正式な加盟国でなくなってもEUの非公式なパートナーにとどまることができる一連の妥協が存在する。
最も可能性の高いのは、「ノルウェー型」と呼ばれるものだ。ノルウェーは欧州経済地域(EEA)の加盟国で、EU単一市場へのアクセスを持つ。その特権と引き換えに、ノルウェーは毎年EUに拠出金を支払い、作成には関与していないEUの規則順守に同意し、EU市民の自由な移動を認めている。英国が交渉によって同じような地位を確保できることに疑いはない。
最大の障害は、多くの人をEU離脱支持に突き動かした移民問題だが、ここでも外交官がさまざまな手法を駆使するだろう。
厳密に言えば、英国は法的にEUの加盟国ではなくなる。しかし、2〜3年後、霧が晴れれば、英国とEUの関係は実際的な意味としてはほとんど変わっていない可能性がある。EUの「よれよれの妥協の精神」は、ここでも勝利することになると予想する。
Project Syndicate
Benjamin Cohen 専門は国際金融、国際政治経済学。米コロンビア大博士(経済学)。著書に「通貨の地理学」ほか。79歳。
The Case for Muddling Through Brexit
Panic is gripping markets stocks and bonds are falling, the pound is plumbing new depths, fears of recession are rampant all because a slim majority of voters in the United Kingdom decided that the country should leave the European Union.
The British public has spoken and the die is cast. The UK's new prime minister, Theresa May, will have to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. within two years, Britain will be officially out, like it or not.
But is all the market angst warranted? One could argue that the outlook is much less dire than most people realize. My advice is to take a deep breath and adopt the long view, because this story is far from over. After all is said and done, the ending could in fact turn out to be surprisingly benign and, ironically, similar to what exists now.
The challenges ahead are obvious. The narrow majority for "Leave" implies that there are still many in Britain who deeply resent the idea of "Brexit."
Start with "the City," London's wall Street, which, despite the UK's use of the pound rather than the euro, has long served as the EU's pulsing financial center and its gateway to the rest of the world's markets. with Britain out altogether, large sectors of the City's business can be expected to migrate to new homes on the continent. The only question is which city will win the race to replace London. The most logical choice would seem to be Frankfurt, the home of the European Central Bank, but Paris and Amsterdam are also in the running.
Britain's exporters are also unhappy because half of their sales are to fellow EU members. Nor should we forget the Scots and the Northern Irish, who voted overwhelmingly against Brexit and are now prepared to go to great lengths to preserve their membership in the European club.
Indeed, even some of the most enthusiastic Leave campaigners have shown signs of buyer's remorse, now that the price of Brexit is becoming increasingly clear. Most notorious among them is Boris Johnson, the former London mayor who, just four days after the referendum, wrote a commentary in the Daily Telegraph titled: "I Cannot Stress Too Much That Britain Is Part of Europe ? And Always will Be."
So, how can Britain uphold the democratic will of its voters and yet remain "part of Europe," as the City and others would like? The answer is simple: It should muddle through. This shouldn"t be too hard in the end. This, after all, is the country that had, as the historian John Robert Seeley once wrote, "conquered and peopled half the world in a fit of absence of mind."
Fortunately, the EU itself also has a proud tradition of muddling through the challenges it faces, long relying on messy arrangements to accommodate its various members" needs and demands. The EU most likely would have collapsed early on had it not been for what The Economist has described as its "spirit of grubby compromise." Where divergent interests cannot be easily reconciled, the EU has mastered the techniques of obfuscation and ambiguity to keep the beast lumbering forward.
Can such an arrangement now keep Britain in Europe? If I were a betting man, I would say yes. Policymakers know that despite the definitive wording of the Brexit referendum, the choice was never a simple "in" or "out." Between those two poles is a host of possible compromises that would leave Britain an informal partner of the EU, even if no longer a formal member.
The most likely possibility that comes to mind is known as the "Norway option." Norway is a member of the European Economic Area, but it has access to the EU's single market. In return for that privilege, Norway contributes annually to the EU budget, agrees to play by all the bloc's rules ? even if it has no part in their formulation ? and allows for the free movement of EU citizens. There is little reason to doubt that Britain could negotiate something along similar lines.
The easiest part to negotiate would be the annual contribution, which need not be very different from what the UK transfers to the EU now. Nor should it be difficult to find some way to give Britain an opt-out on any new EU rules, similar to what it already enjoys outside the eurozone under the banner of "vital national interests."
The biggest stumbling block is immigration, which motivated so many Leave voters. But even here it isn"t impossible to imagine that diplomats might be able to fudge things enough to reach an agreement that even the Leave camp can stomach.
In short, there is a good chance that in two or three years, after the smoke has cleared, little will have changed between the UK and the EU in practical terms. As a strictly legal matter, Britain will no longer be an EU member. But, otherwise, life will go on much as it did before. The EU's spirit of "grubby compromise" will have won out again.
◆FT, ドイツ・チーフ・コレスポンデント、ステファン・ワグスティル氏：
【内憂外患 独首相の苦悩】
権力の座に就いて11年、ドイツのメルケル首相にとって英国が6月23日に国民投票によって欧州連合(EU)から離脱を決めたことで、自身がEUで築き上げてきた成果が台無しになるかもしれない。しかし、独政府の閣僚やEU本部の幹部、他のEU加盟国首脳が英国への怒りをあらわにする一方、あまり感情を出さないメルケル氏の心の内を最も示したのは「非常に残念だとのコメントだ。
もっと怒りを見せても不思議はないが、複雑な心境なのだろう。慎重な姿勢で長年EUに関わってきた同氏は今、自らの政治生命を懸けた戦いに備えている。「残念だには様々な懸念が含まれている。EU内で自由経済を重視する同志を失うこと、さらなるEU離脱を招くリスク、EU内での自らの立場が危うくなる危険といった懸念だ。
【難民危機影響 かげる支持率】
メルケル氏が掲げる目標は欧州の結束だが、その実現は英離脱決定で難しくなった。今後は高まるポピュリズム(大衆迎合主義)を撃退し、英国と残るEU加盟27カ国との関係、中でもドイツとの緊密さを維持する必要がある。かねての高い支持率は昨年の欧州難民危機以降、落ちている。それだけに来年の総選挙に備えつつ、これらの課題を克服する必要がある。
メルケル氏は英国とEUの利害を調整する一方、ユンケル欧州委員長を筆頭に、フランスのオランド大統領、イタリアのレンツィ首相など、今後のEUについて異なる将来像を掲げる彼らの対立も調整しなければならない。「メルケル氏の(EUでの)統率力は弱まるし、英離脱はEUのさらなる分裂と論争を招くだろうと、欧州外交評議会ベルリン事務所のヤニングス代表は言う。
金融危機からギリシャ債務危機、ウクライナ紛争、難民危機に至るまで、危機対応には慣れているメルケル氏にとっても、英離脱は次元の異なる難題だ。
これにはメルケル氏のレガシー(政治的遺産)がかかっている。旧東独出身者として欧州大陸の新たな分裂は見たくない。冷戦後、欧州再統合を主導したコール元首相の後継者として、首相在任中にEU解体を目にするわけにはいかない。
メルケル氏は昨年、ドイツに100万人超の難民を受け入れたが、その政策がEU内で支持を得ることはほぼなかった。その後、難民受け入れの分担案を作ったが、他の加盟国から支持を得られず、後退させざるを得なかった。難民流入を減らすため、自尊心を捨ててトルコと取引することも余儀なくされた。
【移民政策に反発 EU本部が攻勢】
メルケル氏は、移民政策を巡り政治論争を巻き起こしたと非難されている。英離脱決定もこの難民政策が一因だとする見方もある。
保守派のルクセンブルク人、ユンケル氏も変化を感じ取っている。英国民投票直後に、英離脱の決定はEU本部の失策が招いたとして出された辞任要求をはねつけて以来、メルケル氏の弱みに乗じてEU本部の権限を強めようと攻勢に出ている。
メルケル氏とは対照的に、ユンケル氏は英国に離脱交渉の早期開始を迫り、不透明な期間を短くしようとしている。来年3月に議会選を控えるオランダでは極右・自由党のウィルダース党首が、また来年5月に大統領選があるフランスでも同じく極右・国民戦線のルペン党首がEU離脱を巡る国民投票の実施を訴えており、英国との交渉の遅れは他の加盟国の離脱を促しかねないからだ。
ユンケル氏はシュルツ欧州議会議長と共に、英離脱後のEU再建にはEUの各機関が中心的役割を果たすべきだと主張する。
メルケル氏にとってさらなる懸念は、ユンケル氏がユーロ圏の緊縮策を骨抜きにしようとしている点だ。ユンケル氏は5月、今年の財政目標達成が困難とみられるフランスについて、「フランスだから特例扱いされるべきだとの姿勢を示した。同氏はさらに、メルケル氏の怒りを買いそうな発言をした。「我々は経済、財政、社会の危機に対し、緊縮一本やりの対応を求めるドイツ一国主義に終止符を打つべきだ
ユンケル氏は特に論争を呼んでいるEUとカナダの貿易協定は各国議会に諮らずに、EU機関のみで承認すべきだと提案してドイツをいら立たせた。これは加盟国からの権力の争奪だとドイツ議員から強い不満の声が上がり、同氏は提案を取り下げた。
メルケル氏は時間が味方してくれるかもしれないと考えている。英離脱決定が欧州の多くの人にショックを与え、政治的には現状維持派が増えたからだ。国民投票後の調査会社ユーガブの世論調査では、ドイツのほか、EUに懐疑的だったフィンランド、スウェーデン、デンマークの3カ国でも加盟継続への支持が拡大した。
連邦主義を掲げるユンケル、シュルツ両氏とは異なり、メルケル氏は個々の加盟国の役割を重視する。
緊縮策については、メルケル氏は多少譲歩するかもしれない。ユンケル氏はオランド氏、レンツィ氏ら中道左派の指導者から支持されている。メルケル氏は英離脱が決まって以降、若者の失業問題に対処すると語っている。若年失業率が25％近い南欧やフランスでは重要な問題だ。
英離脱決定はドイツの経済的影響力を弱める恐れがある。フランスやイタリアなどが大きな政府を訴えてきた中、英国は長年、ドイツと共に政府の干渉を最小限にする自由市場主義を推進してきた。ドイツ議会のある議員は「英離脱後は、経済面でフランス、イタリアと妥協する場面が増えるだろうと話す。
英国の離脱協議についてメルケル氏は早期開始も望んでいないし、英国に対し「特に厳しくする理由もないと話す。圧力のかけ方を誤れば、英国や他の欧州諸国、特にドイツに対する経済的コストが膨らむだけだと心配している。
来年の総選挙を控え、メルケル氏はドイツ企業の利益を大事にしている。だが企業は英国の混乱を不安視している。「英EU離脱は今後ずっとドイツ経済に打撃を与えるとドイツ商工会議所連合会のシュバイツァー会長は話す。
【英の影響力喪失】
対ロ政策に打撃英国はドイツにとって米国、フランスに次ぐ第3の市場であり、ドイツの輸出額の7.5％を占める。
ドイツはEUで英国が果たしてきた重要な役割が失われることも恐れている。英国はフランス同様、世界で諜報(ちょうほう)活動を展開し、軍事的な影響力を誇り、国連安全保障理事会の常任理事国でもある。
だが、EUの世界における戦略的な役割が損なわれるかもしれない。とりわけウクライナ問題を巡る経済制裁で、英国がメルケル氏の強硬路線を支持した対ロシアにおいてはそうだ。
長期的には、英離脱でドイツの欧州での影響力が強まる可能性がある。とはいえ、短期的な問題はドイツの強さではなく、EUとしての弱さだ。英国が実際に離脱するまでは各国の政治とEUの官僚機構は膨大なエネルギーを奪われ、難民や多額の不良債権を抱えるイタリアの銀行、ギリシャなど他の危機に対応する余力がほとんどなくなる。
欧州が抱える問題がいかに困難でも、メルケル氏は国内の課題や来年の選挙に一段と精力を注ぐだろう。
ドイツのある有力議員は「何が起きても、英離脱で我々の来年の選挙運動が影響を受けることがあってはならない。メルケル首相は欧州の危機管理の実績を訴え、運動したがっていると言う。前回選挙ではその実績は明白だった。英離脱の影響がまだはっきりとは表れていない今、もはやそれは自明とはいえない。
JULY 13, 2016 By:Stefan Wagstyl
Angela Merkel: Crunch time for Europe's crisis manager
**The UK's vote to leave the EU has dented the German chancellor's position in Europe, giving rivals a chance to attack**
For Angela Merkel, Brexit is a threat to everything she has achieved in more than a decade as the EU's dominant political force. But while her ministers, EU chiefs in Brussels and other European heads of government seethe, the German chancellor has kept her feelings to herself. The most pointed comment she has made since Britain's decision to leave the EU on June 23 is that the decision was "regrettable".
As understatements go it would be hard to beat. Ms Merkel, the 61-year-old habitually cautious EU veteran, is in fact preparing for the fight of her political life. Behind the one word "regrettable" lie multiple concerns including the loss of a key liberal economic ally in the EU, the risk of further exits and the danger to her position in Europe.
"She faces a historic challenge to hold Europe together. This is in Germany's interest and it is in Europe's interest too. No question, she is very worried," says Jurgen Falter, a professor of politics at Mainz University.
If Ms Merkel's fundamental aims are simple, the execution of them has been made more complex by Brexit, even for a methodical ex-scientist With years of practice in resolving crises. She must now work to keep the EU together, fight off rising populism and ensure that the UK stays as close as possible to the remaining 27 members, above all to Germany. And she must do all this while preparing for next year's German parliamentary elections, the first since Europe's refugee crisis dented her sky-high ratings.
Ms Merkel will have to juggle the conflicting interests of Britain? Where a new government will have to clarify its intentions the union and its fractious member states, while facing down rivals with competing visions of Europe's future, not least Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, Francois Hollande, president of France, and Matteo Renzi, Italian premier. "Merkel's mastery [of the EU] will be weaker," says Josef Janning, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Brexit will add more divisions and more controversies."
**Blame game**
For a leader accustomed to dealing with crises ? the global financial upheaval, the Greek debt disaster, the Ukraine conflict and now the refugee emergency ? Brexit is a challenge of a different order. "We think that we 27 [states] can overcome the situation. But We have no illusions that this is a qualitatively different task," she said at the end of a sombre gathering of EU leaders a feWwdays after the referendum.
Her legacy is at stake. As a child of the former East Germany, she would hate to see new continental divisions. And as heir to former chancellor Helmut Kohl, the driving force of post-cold war European reunification, she would be loath to see the EU break up on her watch.
After 11 years in power her dominance of Germany and the EU is under threat. At home, support for the conservative bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union has fallen from 41 per cent in the 2013 election to around 33 per cent. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany has grown into the bloc's first significant rightwing challenger since the second world war. In the EU, the welcome she gave last year to more than 1m refugees won little support from fellow member states. Some feel bullied by German demands to take in migrants ? and have forced her to back down on proposals for an EU-wide redistribution of refugees. worse, to reduce the refugee inflows she has had to swallow her pride and cut a deal with Turkey.
She is widely accused of stirring the hornet's nest of migration politics. Alexander Lambsdorff, the liberal vice-president of the European Parliament, is among those blaming Brexit partly on Ms Merkel's refugee policy. "That some people should now portray her as Europe's rescuer is absurd ? Brexit is also her responsibility."
Crucially, whereas Berlin imposed solutions in the global and Greece financial crises, and led the way over Ukraine, the scale of the refugee problem has turned Ms Merkel into a supplicant, asking favours from other member states ? and being rebuffed by countries as small as Hungary. "She has lost her influence within the [European] Council," says one EU leader. "She has become the demandeur."
Mr Juncker has sensed the shift. The conservative Luxembourger has irritated Ms Merkel ever since he got Brussels' top job in 2014 against her will by winning grass roots support from conservative EU parties, including the CDU/CSU. Fending off calls for his resignation in the wake of the Brexit vote, and denying he was "tired or sick", he has gone on the attack, seeking to exploit the chancellor's weakness and shore up Brussels' powers.
In contrast to Ms Merkel, he is pressing for a quick start to Britain's departure negotiations, seeking to squeeze London and shorten the period of uncertainty. He worries that delays could encourage other sceptical EU members to exit ? with calls for referendums made by both Dutch rightwinger Geert wilders and Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Front, ahead of elections in the next 12 months.
Together with Martin Schulz, the German social democrat and president of the European Parliament, Mr Juncker argues for EU institutions to play a key role in reshaping the post-Brexit union.
Of more concern to Ms Merkel is his push to dilute eurozone austerity policies. In May, Mr Juncker suggested that France ? which is expected to fail to meet its budget targets this year ? should get special favours "because it's France". He further risked Ms Merkel's ire by defending his approach in the days after the UK vote, saying: "As a commission, we have put an end to blind unilateralism that demanded that austerity alone would be our response to economic, financial and social crisis."
The commission chief especially annoyed Berlin by proposing immediately after the referendum that Brussels alone should approve a controversial EU trade deal with Canada, without recourse to national parliaments. Amid uproar from German parliamentarians, furious at what they saw as a power grab, Mr Juncker has backed down.
In one key respect Ms Merkel believes time may be on her side ? the Brexit vote has shocked many Europeans into rallying around the political status quo. YouGov opinion polls carried out in EU states after the referendum showed increases in support for continued membership in Germany and in three previously Eurosceptic states: Finland, Sweden and Denmark.
"In every country there will be people who will make the EU a scapegoat for all kinds of domestic problems or fears," says Manuel Sarrazin, the German Green party's Europe spokesman. "But there are also majorities bigger than in the UK that see the benefits of the EU, especially after Brexit."
**A different vision**
In contrast to the Juncker/Schulz federalist vision, Ms Merkel emphasises the role of member states. Wolfgang Schauble, her combative finance minister, has warned the commission to do its job better or face losing power to national capitals. "This is not the time for visions," he told Die welt newspaper. "If the commission does not work with us, then we ourselves will take things in hand."
Ms Merkel is afraid that discussion of wide-ranging reform plans could open the way for populists to advance radical ideas. She also wants to avoid alienating the eastern member states.
On austerity the chancellor may give a little ground. Mr Juncker is backed by centre-left leaders, headed by Mr Hollande, Mr Renzi and German Social Democratic chief Sigmar Gabriel, a minister in Ms Merkel's coalition. She has talked since the Brexit vote about addressing youth unemployment ? a key issue in southern Europe and France, where the youth jobless rate is close to 25 per cent.
Sandro Gozi, Italy's secretary of state for EU affairs, says: "We need a constructive role from Germany also on the economic front and we see there is still a lot of work to do."
Ironically Brexit could weaken Berlin's economic hand. London has long been an ally in pushing for liberal markets, with minimal government interference, in the face of France, Italy and others arguing for a bigger state role. "After Brexit, I think there will be more compromises with France and Italy on the economic front," says one CDU MP.
The next test could be Italy's bid to secure EU approval for a rescue of its debt-laden banks, in the face of strict state aid rules agreed in 2013. Ms Merkel has rebuffed Mr Renzi's request, arguing that the regulations cannot be changed "every two years".
But Mr Renzi is fighting for a compromise and suggesting that even Germany might yet need a bank rescue. Last week he claimed that Italian banks' problems were smaller than those of other eurozone "big banks" with derivatives positions. He did not name any institution but was widely thought to have been talking of Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, whose shares have fallen by 60 per cent in the past year and trade near all-time lows.
**No need to be 'nasty'**
With regard to Brexit, Ms Merkel wants anything but the Juncker-backed rapid start to talks. Even when they begin, Ms Merkel says there is no reason to be "particularly nasty" to the UK. She worries that misguided pressure would only increase the economic costs to Britain and its partners, especially Germany.
German business interests are close to Ms Merkel's heart, especially ahead of national elections. The economy is doing well, with wages rising, unemployment falling and consumption growing, but companies fear the turmoil in the UK; the Dax stock index is down 5 per cent since the referendum.
"Brexit permanently damages the German economy," says Eric Schweitzer, president of DIHK, the German chambers of commerce. "It is working as a dampener on conditions."
Britain is Germany's third-largest market, after the US and France, taking 7.5 per cent of its exports. For some industries it is much higher: the UK accounts for 12.5 per cent of sales for its influential carmakers. Markus Kerber, managing director of the BDI employers' association, says: "we should not talk about punishing people [in tough negotiations] if we don't know that we might be punished ourselves."
Moreover, Berlin fears the loss of Britain's wider role in the EU. Along with France, it brings to the EU worldwide intelligence services, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and a rare capacity to project military power. Nato officials, gathered in warsaw for a summit last weekend, say little of this will change. Also, as the UK was never an enthusiastic backer of EU defence co-operation, they say its departure may make it easier for the remaining 27 members to pursue initiatives opposed by London, such as a joint army.
The EU's broader strategic role could, however, be undermined, notably in relation to Russia, where the UK has backed Ms Merkel's hard line on economic sanctions over Ukraine. ECFR's Mr Janning says: "Russia wants to exploit Brexit as much as possible."
Over the longer run Brexit could strengthen Germany's grip on Europe and with it fears of Berlin's dominance. In the short term, however, the problem is not Germany's strength but the EU's collective weakness. The Brexit process will consume huge political and bureaucratic resources, leaving fewer available for other crises such as refugees, Italian banks or Greece.
However demanding the European questions will be, Ms Merkel will devote more energy to the domestic agenda ? and next year's elections. Analysts say it is too soon to say whether Brexit will boost the populist vote, as the AfD hopes, or whether the prospect of a struggling UK will frighten conservative Germans into sticking with Ms Merkel.
"Whatever happens," says a leading CDU MP, "Brexit must not damage our election campaign for next year. She wants to campaign on her record of managing crises in Europe." In the last election that record was self-evident. with the full fallout from Brexit yet to be realised that is no longer the case.
お風呂は入ったんだけど、以降の記憶が定かでない。
2時頃目が覚めるとPCはつけっぱだわ髪は濡れてるわ。
夜はかなり書きものをするんだけど、(ペンと紙)
もう1文字も書けない。と思った。久しぶり。
やっぱ週末の4本ノック(・・・)が今更覿面に効いてますかね。
鍛え方があまいのかね。(・・・)
年波には勝てませんね。(・・・)
*この赤い薬を飲めば、キッカリ2時間びしっと集中できる。
書類の山が消える!気になってた掃除が捗る!積読が片付く!
マジでそういう薬欲しくなったり。
人間やめますか？な薬。
「しんどいしんどい」ってぶつぶつ言いながら、感じながら、やる、重い身体を引きずって動かす、のが、
そんなにイヤなら人間やめちまえ。だよなあ。
人間らしくていいじゃない。
*土竜の唄ｗ サイ!!サイコー!!
パピヨンかっけえな。ジューシーも女になっちゃうもんな。
いい種も悪い種もテメエがまいたモノを一つずつ刈り取るのが人生だ。 だから人生ってのは面白い。 いい花咲かせろよ、兄弟。
俺は誰のオトコでもねえが、 一度でも抱いた女は俺のオンナだ。
玲二「兄弟が飛べねぇって言うんなら、オレが兄弟の羽になる！」
そういえば実写版があって、堤真一が演じてたんだっけ。観てないけど・・・
*うわあ まだ火曜日だよ！！早く寝る寝る寝る。
(- -)
【自分用メモ】(長いのでたたみます。)
◆プロシェアーズ・ウルトラショート・エン(ProShares UltraShort Yen)は、メリーランド州ベセスダに本社を置く、上場投資信託(ETF)事業を行う企業です。
日本円の米ドル価格の利回り実績の2倍逆数に対応する毎日の投資成果を追求します。
該当するベンチマークに関して、スワップ協定や先物契約、先渡し契約、オプション契約の金融商品の1つまたは複数の組み合わせに投資します。
また、現金・現金同等物、米国財務省証券、その他の高信用度短期固定利付、金融商品の担保として機能する類似有価証券などの、その他資産にも投資します。
プロシェア・アドバイザーズが、投資顧問を務めます。
◆フリードリヒ・ヴィルヘルム・ライファイゼン(Friedrich Wilhelm Raiffeisen)(1818年 3月30日-1888年 3月11日)はドイツのヴァイアーブッシュ市長(1844-48),フランマースフェルト市長(1848-52)ヘッデスドルフ市長(1852-65), 信用協同組合の先駆者である。いくつかの信用組合システムや協同組織金融機関は、地方の信用組合(農業協同組合に近い)の祖であるライファイゼンの名を冠する。
◆◆ちょっと前の、Project Syndicate と Financial Times から。
◆ベンジャミン・コーヘン氏(米カリフォルニア大サンタバーバラ校教授)：
英とEU、「妥協通じ協調を」
英国の有権者がごく僅差で欧州連合(EU)からの離脱を決めたことで、市場の混乱や景気後退への懸念が高まっている。しかし、そうした懸念には根拠があるのだろうか。大半の人が考えているほど見通しは暗くないと主張することも可能だ。この物語はまだ終わりには程遠いため、深呼吸をして長期的な視点に立つことを勧めたい。
英国がEUを離脱すれば金融街シティーのビジネスのかなりの部門は大陸に移転すると予想される。売上高の半分がEU向けである英国の輸出企業にも不満が多い。スコットランドや北アイルランドの住民は残留をなんとか実現しようとしている。離脱の代償は明確になりつつある。
では、英国はどのようにしたら有権者の民主的な意思を尊重しつつ、シティーなどが望むような「欧州の一部にとどまることができるのだろうか。答えは「何とかやって行く」だ。
EUには多くの課題に直面しながら何とか切り抜けてきた伝統がある。長年、さまざまな加盟国のニーズや要求を調整し、厄介な取り決めに依存してきた。EUはそうした「よれよれの妥協の精神」(エコノミスト誌)がなかったら、初期のうちに崩壊していた可能性が高い。異なる利害が簡単に折り合うことができない状況で、EUは混乱と不明瞭とあいまいさのテクニックを身につけ、何とか図体の大きな怪物を前に進める方法を見つけてきた。
政策決定者は、EU離脱を巡る国民投票が明示していたにもかかわらず、選択肢が「残留」と「離脱」だけではなかったことを知っている。この2つの間には、英国が正式な加盟国でなくなってもEUの非公式なパートナーにとどまることができる一連の妥協が存在する。
最も可能性の高いのは、「ノルウェー型」と呼ばれるものだ。ノルウェーは欧州経済地域(EEA)の加盟国で、EU単一市場へのアクセスを持つ。その特権と引き換えに、ノルウェーは毎年EUに拠出金を支払い、作成には関与していないEUの規則順守に同意し、EU市民の自由な移動を認めている。英国が交渉によって同じような地位を確保できることに疑いはない。
最大の障害は、多くの人をEU離脱支持に突き動かした移民問題だが、ここでも外交官がさまざまな手法を駆使するだろう。
厳密に言えば、英国は法的にEUの加盟国ではなくなる。しかし、2〜3年後、霧が晴れれば、英国とEUの関係は実際的な意味としてはほとんど変わっていない可能性がある。EUの「よれよれの妥協の精神」は、ここでも勝利することになると予想する。
Project Syndicate
Benjamin Cohen 専門は国際金融、国際政治経済学。米コロンビア大博士(経済学)。著書に「通貨の地理学」ほか。79歳。
The Case for Muddling Through Brexit
Panic is gripping markets stocks and bonds are falling, the pound is plumbing new depths, fears of recession are rampant all because a slim majority of voters in the United Kingdom decided that the country should leave the European Union.
The British public has spoken and the die is cast. The UK's new prime minister, Theresa May, will have to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. within two years, Britain will be officially out, like it or not.
But is all the market angst warranted? One could argue that the outlook is much less dire than most people realize. My advice is to take a deep breath and adopt the long view, because this story is far from over. After all is said and done, the ending could in fact turn out to be surprisingly benign and, ironically, similar to what exists now.
The challenges ahead are obvious. The narrow majority for "Leave" implies that there are still many in Britain who deeply resent the idea of "Brexit."
Start with "the City," London's wall Street, which, despite the UK's use of the pound rather than the euro, has long served as the EU's pulsing financial center and its gateway to the rest of the world's markets. with Britain out altogether, large sectors of the City's business can be expected to migrate to new homes on the continent. The only question is which city will win the race to replace London. The most logical choice would seem to be Frankfurt, the home of the European Central Bank, but Paris and Amsterdam are also in the running.
Britain's exporters are also unhappy because half of their sales are to fellow EU members. Nor should we forget the Scots and the Northern Irish, who voted overwhelmingly against Brexit and are now prepared to go to great lengths to preserve their membership in the European club.
Indeed, even some of the most enthusiastic Leave campaigners have shown signs of buyer's remorse, now that the price of Brexit is becoming increasingly clear. Most notorious among them is Boris Johnson, the former London mayor who, just four days after the referendum, wrote a commentary in the Daily Telegraph titled: "I Cannot Stress Too Much That Britain Is Part of Europe ? And Always will Be."
So, how can Britain uphold the democratic will of its voters and yet remain "part of Europe," as the City and others would like? The answer is simple: It should muddle through. This shouldn"t be too hard in the end. This, after all, is the country that had, as the historian John Robert Seeley once wrote, "conquered and peopled half the world in a fit of absence of mind."
Fortunately, the EU itself also has a proud tradition of muddling through the challenges it faces, long relying on messy arrangements to accommodate its various members" needs and demands. The EU most likely would have collapsed early on had it not been for what The Economist has described as its "spirit of grubby compromise." Where divergent interests cannot be easily reconciled, the EU has mastered the techniques of obfuscation and ambiguity to keep the beast lumbering forward.
Can such an arrangement now keep Britain in Europe? If I were a betting man, I would say yes. Policymakers know that despite the definitive wording of the Brexit referendum, the choice was never a simple "in" or "out." Between those two poles is a host of possible compromises that would leave Britain an informal partner of the EU, even if no longer a formal member.
The most likely possibility that comes to mind is known as the "Norway option." Norway is a member of the European Economic Area, but it has access to the EU's single market. In return for that privilege, Norway contributes annually to the EU budget, agrees to play by all the bloc's rules ? even if it has no part in their formulation ? and allows for the free movement of EU citizens. There is little reason to doubt that Britain could negotiate something along similar lines.
The easiest part to negotiate would be the annual contribution, which need not be very different from what the UK transfers to the EU now. Nor should it be difficult to find some way to give Britain an opt-out on any new EU rules, similar to what it already enjoys outside the eurozone under the banner of "vital national interests."
The biggest stumbling block is immigration, which motivated so many Leave voters. But even here it isn"t impossible to imagine that diplomats might be able to fudge things enough to reach an agreement that even the Leave camp can stomach.
In short, there is a good chance that in two or three years, after the smoke has cleared, little will have changed between the UK and the EU in practical terms. As a strictly legal matter, Britain will no longer be an EU member. But, otherwise, life will go on much as it did before. The EU's spirit of "grubby compromise" will have won out again.
◆FT, ドイツ・チーフ・コレスポンデント、ステファン・ワグスティル氏：
【内憂外患 独首相の苦悩】
権力の座に就いて11年、ドイツのメルケル首相にとって英国が6月23日に国民投票によって欧州連合(EU)から離脱を決めたことで、自身がEUで築き上げてきた成果が台無しになるかもしれない。しかし、独政府の閣僚やEU本部の幹部、他のEU加盟国首脳が英国への怒りをあらわにする一方、あまり感情を出さないメルケル氏の心の内を最も示したのは「非常に残念だとのコメントだ。
もっと怒りを見せても不思議はないが、複雑な心境なのだろう。慎重な姿勢で長年EUに関わってきた同氏は今、自らの政治生命を懸けた戦いに備えている。「残念だには様々な懸念が含まれている。EU内で自由経済を重視する同志を失うこと、さらなるEU離脱を招くリスク、EU内での自らの立場が危うくなる危険といった懸念だ。
【難民危機影響 かげる支持率】
メルケル氏が掲げる目標は欧州の結束だが、その実現は英離脱決定で難しくなった。今後は高まるポピュリズム(大衆迎合主義)を撃退し、英国と残るEU加盟27カ国との関係、中でもドイツとの緊密さを維持する必要がある。かねての高い支持率は昨年の欧州難民危機以降、落ちている。それだけに来年の総選挙に備えつつ、これらの課題を克服する必要がある。
メルケル氏は英国とEUの利害を調整する一方、ユンケル欧州委員長を筆頭に、フランスのオランド大統領、イタリアのレンツィ首相など、今後のEUについて異なる将来像を掲げる彼らの対立も調整しなければならない。「メルケル氏の(EUでの)統率力は弱まるし、英離脱はEUのさらなる分裂と論争を招くだろうと、欧州外交評議会ベルリン事務所のヤニングス代表は言う。
金融危機からギリシャ債務危機、ウクライナ紛争、難民危機に至るまで、危機対応には慣れているメルケル氏にとっても、英離脱は次元の異なる難題だ。
これにはメルケル氏のレガシー(政治的遺産)がかかっている。旧東独出身者として欧州大陸の新たな分裂は見たくない。冷戦後、欧州再統合を主導したコール元首相の後継者として、首相在任中にEU解体を目にするわけにはいかない。
メルケル氏は昨年、ドイツに100万人超の難民を受け入れたが、その政策がEU内で支持を得ることはほぼなかった。その後、難民受け入れの分担案を作ったが、他の加盟国から支持を得られず、後退させざるを得なかった。難民流入を減らすため、自尊心を捨ててトルコと取引することも余儀なくされた。
【移民政策に反発 EU本部が攻勢】
メルケル氏は、移民政策を巡り政治論争を巻き起こしたと非難されている。英離脱決定もこの難民政策が一因だとする見方もある。
保守派のルクセンブルク人、ユンケル氏も変化を感じ取っている。英国民投票直後に、英離脱の決定はEU本部の失策が招いたとして出された辞任要求をはねつけて以来、メルケル氏の弱みに乗じてEU本部の権限を強めようと攻勢に出ている。
メルケル氏とは対照的に、ユンケル氏は英国に離脱交渉の早期開始を迫り、不透明な期間を短くしようとしている。来年3月に議会選を控えるオランダでは極右・自由党のウィルダース党首が、また来年5月に大統領選があるフランスでも同じく極右・国民戦線のルペン党首がEU離脱を巡る国民投票の実施を訴えており、英国との交渉の遅れは他の加盟国の離脱を促しかねないからだ。
ユンケル氏はシュルツ欧州議会議長と共に、英離脱後のEU再建にはEUの各機関が中心的役割を果たすべきだと主張する。
メルケル氏にとってさらなる懸念は、ユンケル氏がユーロ圏の緊縮策を骨抜きにしようとしている点だ。ユンケル氏は5月、今年の財政目標達成が困難とみられるフランスについて、「フランスだから特例扱いされるべきだとの姿勢を示した。同氏はさらに、メルケル氏の怒りを買いそうな発言をした。「我々は経済、財政、社会の危機に対し、緊縮一本やりの対応を求めるドイツ一国主義に終止符を打つべきだ
ユンケル氏は特に論争を呼んでいるEUとカナダの貿易協定は各国議会に諮らずに、EU機関のみで承認すべきだと提案してドイツをいら立たせた。これは加盟国からの権力の争奪だとドイツ議員から強い不満の声が上がり、同氏は提案を取り下げた。
メルケル氏は時間が味方してくれるかもしれないと考えている。英離脱決定が欧州の多くの人にショックを与え、政治的には現状維持派が増えたからだ。国民投票後の調査会社ユーガブの世論調査では、ドイツのほか、EUに懐疑的だったフィンランド、スウェーデン、デンマークの3カ国でも加盟継続への支持が拡大した。
連邦主義を掲げるユンケル、シュルツ両氏とは異なり、メルケル氏は個々の加盟国の役割を重視する。
緊縮策については、メルケル氏は多少譲歩するかもしれない。ユンケル氏はオランド氏、レンツィ氏ら中道左派の指導者から支持されている。メルケル氏は英離脱が決まって以降、若者の失業問題に対処すると語っている。若年失業率が25％近い南欧やフランスでは重要な問題だ。
英離脱決定はドイツの経済的影響力を弱める恐れがある。フランスやイタリアなどが大きな政府を訴えてきた中、英国は長年、ドイツと共に政府の干渉を最小限にする自由市場主義を推進してきた。ドイツ議会のある議員は「英離脱後は、経済面でフランス、イタリアと妥協する場面が増えるだろうと話す。
英国の離脱協議についてメルケル氏は早期開始も望んでいないし、英国に対し「特に厳しくする理由もないと話す。圧力のかけ方を誤れば、英国や他の欧州諸国、特にドイツに対する経済的コストが膨らむだけだと心配している。
来年の総選挙を控え、メルケル氏はドイツ企業の利益を大事にしている。だが企業は英国の混乱を不安視している。「英EU離脱は今後ずっとドイツ経済に打撃を与えるとドイツ商工会議所連合会のシュバイツァー会長は話す。
【英の影響力喪失】
対ロ政策に打撃英国はドイツにとって米国、フランスに次ぐ第3の市場であり、ドイツの輸出額の7.5％を占める。
ドイツはEUで英国が果たしてきた重要な役割が失われることも恐れている。英国はフランス同様、世界で諜報(ちょうほう)活動を展開し、軍事的な影響力を誇り、国連安全保障理事会の常任理事国でもある。
だが、EUの世界における戦略的な役割が損なわれるかもしれない。とりわけウクライナ問題を巡る経済制裁で、英国がメルケル氏の強硬路線を支持した対ロシアにおいてはそうだ。
長期的には、英離脱でドイツの欧州での影響力が強まる可能性がある。とはいえ、短期的な問題はドイツの強さではなく、EUとしての弱さだ。英国が実際に離脱するまでは各国の政治とEUの官僚機構は膨大なエネルギーを奪われ、難民や多額の不良債権を抱えるイタリアの銀行、ギリシャなど他の危機に対応する余力がほとんどなくなる。
欧州が抱える問題がいかに困難でも、メルケル氏は国内の課題や来年の選挙に一段と精力を注ぐだろう。
ドイツのある有力議員は「何が起きても、英離脱で我々の来年の選挙運動が影響を受けることがあってはならない。メルケル首相は欧州の危機管理の実績を訴え、運動したがっていると言う。前回選挙ではその実績は明白だった。英離脱の影響がまだはっきりとは表れていない今、もはやそれは自明とはいえない。
JULY 13, 2016 By:Stefan Wagstyl
Angela Merkel: Crunch time for Europe's crisis manager
**The UK's vote to leave the EU has dented the German chancellor's position in Europe, giving rivals a chance to attack**
For Angela Merkel, Brexit is a threat to everything she has achieved in more than a decade as the EU's dominant political force. But while her ministers, EU chiefs in Brussels and other European heads of government seethe, the German chancellor has kept her feelings to herself. The most pointed comment she has made since Britain's decision to leave the EU on June 23 is that the decision was "regrettable".
As understatements go it would be hard to beat. Ms Merkel, the 61-year-old habitually cautious EU veteran, is in fact preparing for the fight of her political life. Behind the one word "regrettable" lie multiple concerns including the loss of a key liberal economic ally in the EU, the risk of further exits and the danger to her position in Europe.
"She faces a historic challenge to hold Europe together. This is in Germany's interest and it is in Europe's interest too. No question, she is very worried," says Jurgen Falter, a professor of politics at Mainz University.
If Ms Merkel's fundamental aims are simple, the execution of them has been made more complex by Brexit, even for a methodical ex-scientist With years of practice in resolving crises. She must now work to keep the EU together, fight off rising populism and ensure that the UK stays as close as possible to the remaining 27 members, above all to Germany. And she must do all this while preparing for next year's German parliamentary elections, the first since Europe's refugee crisis dented her sky-high ratings.
Ms Merkel will have to juggle the conflicting interests of Britain? Where a new government will have to clarify its intentions the union and its fractious member states, while facing down rivals with competing visions of Europe's future, not least Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, Francois Hollande, president of France, and Matteo Renzi, Italian premier. "Merkel's mastery [of the EU] will be weaker," says Josef Janning, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Brexit will add more divisions and more controversies."
**Blame game**
For a leader accustomed to dealing with crises ? the global financial upheaval, the Greek debt disaster, the Ukraine conflict and now the refugee emergency ? Brexit is a challenge of a different order. "We think that we 27 [states] can overcome the situation. But We have no illusions that this is a qualitatively different task," she said at the end of a sombre gathering of EU leaders a feWwdays after the referendum.
Her legacy is at stake. As a child of the former East Germany, she would hate to see new continental divisions. And as heir to former chancellor Helmut Kohl, the driving force of post-cold war European reunification, she would be loath to see the EU break up on her watch.
After 11 years in power her dominance of Germany and the EU is under threat. At home, support for the conservative bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union has fallen from 41 per cent in the 2013 election to around 33 per cent. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany has grown into the bloc's first significant rightwing challenger since the second world war. In the EU, the welcome she gave last year to more than 1m refugees won little support from fellow member states. Some feel bullied by German demands to take in migrants ? and have forced her to back down on proposals for an EU-wide redistribution of refugees. worse, to reduce the refugee inflows she has had to swallow her pride and cut a deal with Turkey.
She is widely accused of stirring the hornet's nest of migration politics. Alexander Lambsdorff, the liberal vice-president of the European Parliament, is among those blaming Brexit partly on Ms Merkel's refugee policy. "That some people should now portray her as Europe's rescuer is absurd ? Brexit is also her responsibility."
Crucially, whereas Berlin imposed solutions in the global and Greece financial crises, and led the way over Ukraine, the scale of the refugee problem has turned Ms Merkel into a supplicant, asking favours from other member states ? and being rebuffed by countries as small as Hungary. "She has lost her influence within the [European] Council," says one EU leader. "She has become the demandeur."
Mr Juncker has sensed the shift. The conservative Luxembourger has irritated Ms Merkel ever since he got Brussels' top job in 2014 against her will by winning grass roots support from conservative EU parties, including the CDU/CSU. Fending off calls for his resignation in the wake of the Brexit vote, and denying he was "tired or sick", he has gone on the attack, seeking to exploit the chancellor's weakness and shore up Brussels' powers.
In contrast to Ms Merkel, he is pressing for a quick start to Britain's departure negotiations, seeking to squeeze London and shorten the period of uncertainty. He worries that delays could encourage other sceptical EU members to exit ? with calls for referendums made by both Dutch rightwinger Geert wilders and Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Front, ahead of elections in the next 12 months.
Together with Martin Schulz, the German social democrat and president of the European Parliament, Mr Juncker argues for EU institutions to play a key role in reshaping the post-Brexit union.
Of more concern to Ms Merkel is his push to dilute eurozone austerity policies. In May, Mr Juncker suggested that France ? which is expected to fail to meet its budget targets this year ? should get special favours "because it's France". He further risked Ms Merkel's ire by defending his approach in the days after the UK vote, saying: "As a commission, we have put an end to blind unilateralism that demanded that austerity alone would be our response to economic, financial and social crisis."
The commission chief especially annoyed Berlin by proposing immediately after the referendum that Brussels alone should approve a controversial EU trade deal with Canada, without recourse to national parliaments. Amid uproar from German parliamentarians, furious at what they saw as a power grab, Mr Juncker has backed down.
In one key respect Ms Merkel believes time may be on her side ? the Brexit vote has shocked many Europeans into rallying around the political status quo. YouGov opinion polls carried out in EU states after the referendum showed increases in support for continued membership in Germany and in three previously Eurosceptic states: Finland, Sweden and Denmark.
"In every country there will be people who will make the EU a scapegoat for all kinds of domestic problems or fears," says Manuel Sarrazin, the German Green party's Europe spokesman. "But there are also majorities bigger than in the UK that see the benefits of the EU, especially after Brexit."
**A different vision**
In contrast to the Juncker/Schulz federalist vision, Ms Merkel emphasises the role of member states. Wolfgang Schauble, her combative finance minister, has warned the commission to do its job better or face losing power to national capitals. "This is not the time for visions," he told Die welt newspaper. "If the commission does not work with us, then we ourselves will take things in hand."
Ms Merkel is afraid that discussion of wide-ranging reform plans could open the way for populists to advance radical ideas. She also wants to avoid alienating the eastern member states.
On austerity the chancellor may give a little ground. Mr Juncker is backed by centre-left leaders, headed by Mr Hollande, Mr Renzi and German Social Democratic chief Sigmar Gabriel, a minister in Ms Merkel's coalition. She has talked since the Brexit vote about addressing youth unemployment ? a key issue in southern Europe and France, where the youth jobless rate is close to 25 per cent.
Sandro Gozi, Italy's secretary of state for EU affairs, says: "We need a constructive role from Germany also on the economic front and we see there is still a lot of work to do."
Ironically Brexit could weaken Berlin's economic hand. London has long been an ally in pushing for liberal markets, with minimal government interference, in the face of France, Italy and others arguing for a bigger state role. "After Brexit, I think there will be more compromises with France and Italy on the economic front," says one CDU MP.
The next test could be Italy's bid to secure EU approval for a rescue of its debt-laden banks, in the face of strict state aid rules agreed in 2013. Ms Merkel has rebuffed Mr Renzi's request, arguing that the regulations cannot be changed "every two years".
But Mr Renzi is fighting for a compromise and suggesting that even Germany might yet need a bank rescue. Last week he claimed that Italian banks' problems were smaller than those of other eurozone "big banks" with derivatives positions. He did not name any institution but was widely thought to have been talking of Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest, whose shares have fallen by 60 per cent in the past year and trade near all-time lows.
**No need to be 'nasty'**
With regard to Brexit, Ms Merkel wants anything but the Juncker-backed rapid start to talks. Even when they begin, Ms Merkel says there is no reason to be "particularly nasty" to the UK. She worries that misguided pressure would only increase the economic costs to Britain and its partners, especially Germany.
German business interests are close to Ms Merkel's heart, especially ahead of national elections. The economy is doing well, with wages rising, unemployment falling and consumption growing, but companies fear the turmoil in the UK; the Dax stock index is down 5 per cent since the referendum.
"Brexit permanently damages the German economy," says Eric Schweitzer, president of DIHK, the German chambers of commerce. "It is working as a dampener on conditions."
Britain is Germany's third-largest market, after the US and France, taking 7.5 per cent of its exports. For some industries it is much higher: the UK accounts for 12.5 per cent of sales for its influential carmakers. Markus Kerber, managing director of the BDI employers' association, says: "we should not talk about punishing people [in tough negotiations] if we don't know that we might be punished ourselves."
Moreover, Berlin fears the loss of Britain's wider role in the EU. Along with France, it brings to the EU worldwide intelligence services, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and a rare capacity to project military power. Nato officials, gathered in warsaw for a summit last weekend, say little of this will change. Also, as the UK was never an enthusiastic backer of EU defence co-operation, they say its departure may make it easier for the remaining 27 members to pursue initiatives opposed by London, such as a joint army.
The EU's broader strategic role could, however, be undermined, notably in relation to Russia, where the UK has backed Ms Merkel's hard line on economic sanctions over Ukraine. ECFR's Mr Janning says: "Russia wants to exploit Brexit as much as possible."
Over the longer run Brexit could strengthen Germany's grip on Europe and with it fears of Berlin's dominance. In the short term, however, the problem is not Germany's strength but the EU's collective weakness. The Brexit process will consume huge political and bureaucratic resources, leaving fewer available for other crises such as refugees, Italian banks or Greece.
However demanding the European questions will be, Ms Merkel will devote more energy to the domestic agenda ? and next year's elections. Analysts say it is too soon to say whether Brexit will boost the populist vote, as the AfD hopes, or whether the prospect of a struggling UK will frighten conservative Germans into sticking with Ms Merkel.
"Whatever happens," says a leading CDU MP, "Brexit must not damage our election campaign for next year. She wants to campaign on her record of managing crises in Europe." In the last election that record was self-evident. with the full fallout from Brexit yet to be realised that is no longer the case.
